Hope Faded into Disappointment - Ditmir Bushati, Maz 2024

In her victory speech, the newly elected president stated the country's priorities as “first the Balkans, then Europe,” leaving a bitter aftertaste of a return to nationalist rhetoric. During her inauguration, in line with her campaign promises, she refrained from using the constitutional name "North Macedonia," which has been internationally recognized since the Prespa Agreement of 2018, which ended a years-long dispute with Greece.

In her first congratulatory message exchanges with regional counterparts on the social platform X, her message to the President of Kosovo notably avoided referring to Kosovo as a state or using its symbols. Instead, she used the Albanian language, emphasizing “female synergy” due to the key positions held by women in the region, and pointed to a “shared European future.”

The loss of the Social Democrats was as expected as the victory of the conservatives. Yet, the defeat was crushing, the most significant in their history—both in the presidential and parliamentary races. For the first time, the Social Democrats have become the third largest parliamentary force. Although they received more votes than the “European Front” coalition led by DUI, due to the electoral system, they ended up with one fewer seat than DUI’s coalition.

The new political movement ZNAM, led by the mayor of Kumanovo, whose political roots lie in the Social Democratic Party, achieved a surprise result, winning the same number of seats as the leftist party Levica. ZNAM is expected to be part of the new government.

The parliamentary elections also marked a fierce competition among Albanian parties: on one side, the coalition led by DUI, and on the other, the opposition coalition VLEN. VLEN received a record number of votes, but did not surpass DUI’s vote count, due to DUI's coalition with minority parties in North Macedonia.

Even though the number of ethnic Albanian MPs in the new parliament is significant, their influence on decision-making will be more limited than in the past. This makes coordination between Albanians in government and in opposition more necessary than ever. While DUI moves into opposition after many years of coalition governments with Macedonian parties of all stripes, VLEN is expected to hold less power than DUI, and fewer opportunities to influence the coalition, especially when considering the combined strength of VMRO-DPMNE and ZNAM.

After sixteen years, with DUI leaving government, we will witness a complete shift of power in North Macedonia. Unlike the governments led by the Social Democrats, the new government expected after the May 8 elections will not rely on coalition partners. DUI managed to dominate the Albanian political space, becoming an irreplaceable partner for Macedonian parties in power-sharing.

The parties forming VLEN now face a threefold challenge:

1. They must demonstrate cohesion and unity on issues that matter to Albanians and the country, avoiding fragmentation.

2. They must confront a coalition partner, VMRO-DPMNE, which has consistently criticized DUI's dominant role in government beyond its electoral weight. VMRO-DPMNE has also been a vocal opponent of the 2017 Albanian political platform, whose partial implementation significantly improved the rights and representation of Albanians as a state-forming community in North Macedonia.

3. They must focus on realizing the country’s European agenda, actively participating in efforts that solidify good neighborly relations and, above all, ensure the progress of Albanians’ rights and status, preventing a regression into nationalist rhetoric.

The return of VMRO-DPMNE, especially with such a result, was unthinkable until recently. The party’s fall from power in 2017 was triggered by a broad political and civic movement against the abuses of Nikola Gruevski’s government, ending a two-year political crisis and paving the way for the country’s NATO accession and the resolution of bilateral disputes.

The reasons behind VMRO-DPMNE’s remarkable comeback are complex. They are partly due to the outgoing government’s failure to fulfill its promise of honest and effective governance—the very promise that once mobilized citizens against the Gruevski government and brought the Social Democrats to power. While Gruevski used nationalism to cover poor governance, ironically, the outgoing government in recent years used the European narrative for the same purpose. In a way, the European narrative was turned upside down.

The political capital invested in the Prespa Agreement, which ended the dispute with Greece and ensured NATO membership, was not rewarded by the EU. Citizens in North Macedonia lost faith in the EU, and the political class lost ownership of the reform process. The experience of this neighboring country teaches us that resolving bilateral disputes alone is not enough to be pro-European. Honest and effective governance, and the fight against corruption and organized crime are equally essential. Otherwise, popular hope turns into disappointment.

Has VMRO-DPMNE learned from its past mistakes and bitter experience in governance? It successfully channeled public disappointment into a popular mandate. But how it builds the government and governs will be the true test of its maturity.

First, regardless of campaign rhetoric and attacks on DUI, guaranteeing the irreversibility of political processes embedded in the constitution—aiming for full equality between the two main state-forming communities—is a precondition for stability and legitimate governance. Albania, as a good neighbor, should not hesitate to convey this message. The key to successful, consolidated neighborly relations lies in respect for inter-ethnic relations, where Albanians are a driving and guaranteeing force of North Macedonia’s Euro-Atlantic identity.

Second, a pragmatic approach is needed in implementing the Prespa Agreement with Greece, just as New Democracy did when it came to power in Greece in 2019, despite having opposed and not voted for the agreement in opposition—respecting the international law principle of pacta sunt servanda (agreements must be kept).

Third, the same pragmatic approach is needed to secure a parliamentary process and majority to adopt the constitutional changes necessary to remove Bulgaria’s veto from North Macedonia’s EU path.

Though in the short term it is easier to create more disorder than to address the “tyranny of the immediate”, taking the above steps would show that VMRO-DPMNE has learned the right lessons from the past, and that it views regional democratic stability, good neighborly relations, and EU membership as achievable goals.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ditmir Bushati is the former Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs and a former Member of Parliament of Albania.

The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation or the organizations the authors work for.