The Past Is No More – Ditmir Bushati, February 2025

Distinct in Values

The scale of strategic change in U.S. policy is most evident in its approach to European allies. The statements made by Vice President Vance at the Munich Security Conference alarmed most European leaders and deepened political divisions within the EU.

Despite being the highest forum for security, Vance’s speech did not mention any external security threats facing the Euro-Atlantic community. His speech contained several bitter truths about the shared values and principles that underpin democratic coexistence — many of which, unfortunately, are more often preached than practiced.

After the Cold War, liberals championed the promotion of democracy and freedom. Now, roles have shifted. It is conservatives who emphasize democratic values and principles, believing they are at risk due to liberal hypocrisy or restrictions. In this context, Vance's message was resonant: the U.S. no longer aligns with Europe on the values they consider essential to a democratic system.

President Trump’s core team views Europe more as an electoral experiment following their success in the U.S., rather than as a political, economic, or military partner. This suggests that Europe’s political landscape in a few years could be drastically different, shaped by American influence. The strengthening of far-right parties in Germany, France, and the UK is a priority for Trump’s inner circle.

The Trump administration sees Asia as the central stage, while Europe has lost its strategic and cultural importance. This poses a fundamental challenge for Europeans who, since WWII and the fall of the Berlin Wall, have seen their relationship with the U.S. as rooted in shared values and interests: collective security, rule of law, fundamental human rights, and a transparent, multilateral free trade system.

For Trump, a recalibration of American priorities is overdue. As the world’s only military superpower, the U.S. must face challenges on three fronts: Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Economic and military realities demand a significant shift of resources away from Europe. The Trump administration assesses trade disruptions, lack of industrial policy that hollowed out working and middle classes, and the tech race — all of which will shape global power dynamics for decades — in similar terms.

At the Table or on the Menu?

NATO’s common stance of “no deal on Ukraine without Ukrainians at the table” took a major hit when the U.S. and Russia re-established direct communication at the presidential level and held high-level talks in Riyadh. Ukrainians and Europeans were not at the table — they were on the menu.

It’s worth recalling Trump’s first summit with Putin in Helsinki in 2018, which sent shockwaves through Europe, as it appeared to disregard European security concerns. However, it had little impact on overall U.S. policy, which remained tough on Russia.

Also notable is Trump’s strategy with North Korea: he struck a deal with its leader, suspending U.S.-South Korea military exercises in exchange for a pause in North Korean missile tests. Despite alarming traditional allies, Trump achieved a significant diplomatic win. Thus, his willingness to negotiate directly with Putin, excluding Europeans, is not unprecedented.

Yet, engaging Russia at the table marks a shift in the U.S. position — from Ukraine’s backer to mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Since Russia’s aggression, the U.S. and Europe have coordinated support for Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and plans for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Public remarks by top Trump officials that "returning Ukraine to pre-2014 borders and NATO membership are unrealistic" caused significant unease in Europe.

Ukraine’s case shows that NATO and European security are no longer one and the same. Among Europe’s challenges, security is the most pressing. Ending Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is a desired goal, but how that goal is achieved will shape European security. While Ukraine is the immediate challenge, ensuring European sovereignty is a far more complex and long-term project. Europeans must systematically rethink their security approach.

Should a peace deal be reached, enforcing it will mainly fall to Europeans, as the U.S. has made clear it will reduce its role in Europe. Europeans will need to balance peace implementation in Ukraine with maintaining their ability to defend other territories bordering Russia. In the long term, Europe will be better off if Ukraine, in some form, becomes an integral part of European defense.

Winners and Losers

It’s still too early to identify the true winners and losers from this shift. One thing is certain: yesterday cannot return. Europe’s geopolitical standing has diminished significantly. The only way to restore it is by exploring previously unthinkable options.

One fundamental rule of geopolitics is planning for worst-case scenarios. After the war in Ukraine began, most European strategic thinking assumed the best-case scenario — that the U.S. would continue its security support. Now, it is clear that European security is no longer a service provided by the U.S. Still, European security is not incompatible with close cooperation with the U.S.

Two thousand years of geopolitics have taught us that great powers prioritize their own interests and, if necessary, sacrifice those of their allies. President Trump is acting as a geopolitical player, prioritizing what he sees as American interests. His stance is clear: Americans look after America, and others must fend for themselves. Europe has no choice but to respond in kind, working resolutely to protect its own interests.

Strengthening Europe’s geopolitical position begins with taking on and expanding its security responsibilities. Europeans must use this time to build defense industrial capacity while creating secure jobs. By gaining the tools of sovereignty and becoming more useful allies to the U.S., Europe can solidify its position. The U.S. and Europe share global leadership — though unequally. Yesterday is no more. It’s time for the U.S. and EU to forge a new cooperation agreement for the decades ahead.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Ditmir Bushati, former Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, former Member of the Albanian Parliament.